The euro will fall dynamically? Check the latest currency forecast for EURPLN

With regard to the September meeting of the Council of Monetary Policy ̨ with ̇ football , even before meeting the expectations of your choice were clearly subdued by the language of President Glapiński. So, in accordance with expectations, the Council kept interest rates unchanged. Your choice was argued for the still high uncertainty as to the sustainability of the economic recovery and the exogenous nature of factors boosting inflation in recent months.

Also people speech of the NBP president was perceived by the market as dovish

Based on the head of the NBP, the national central bank should not react with a rate hike to negative supply shocks, and the responses to the present shock exist only privately of fiscal policy. Glapiński again assessed that the inflation increase is temporary and the indicator may decline to ca. 3.5% in the 2nd 1 / 2 of the year. next year. Regarding the present zloty exchange rate, the President of the NBP described it as satisfactory and advantageous to the economy and exporters.

In turn, the focus of the markets in the euro zone was the September decision on the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and the press conference of the ECB president Christine Lagarde. In line with market expectations, interest rates remained unchanged. At once, asset purchases under the Emergency Pandemic Purchasing Program ( PEPP ) is going to be at a moderately slower pace than before. However, its nominal value itself will remain unchanged at least until March 2022.

The ECB also revised upwards its GDP growth forecasts in the euro area for 2021 to 5%, in 2022 it transpired to 4.6%, and in 2023 it remained unchanged at 2.1%. The ECB revised its inflation forecasts upwards to 2.2% for 2021, as much as 1.7% for 2022 and as much as 1.5% in 2023. More " hawk ̨ bi " message of the ECB was expected by the market, that is to correspond to the great macroeconomic and higher compared to the projected inflation.

Towards the rs gold euro

Following the consolidation of the EURPLN rate in the region of 4.55-4.60 for the majority of July and August, the quotations broke through the bottom in the beginning of September. It had been a derivative of more than expected data on August inflation (+ 5.4% YoY vs + 5.2% consensus), which translated into a rise in market expectations regarding an interest rate hike by the MPC in 2021. This trend quickly followed. however, a reversal in the 2nd week of September plus a gradual retreat from risk in global equity markets.

The zloty weakening accelerated following the NBP president's comments, Adam Glapiński, who eliminated the chance of an interest rate hike this year ahead of the MPC meeting in September. and stated that such conditions may not arise until Q1'22. Adding to the rising concerns about the state of the economic situation in China and the situation sp ol ki Evergrande , retreat from risky assets accelerated in the 2nd 1 / 2 of September, which resulted in the stroke of the EUR / PLN rate above resistance at 4.60. In the short term (ie before end with this year), we expect the EUR / PLN to stay around 4.60, that will be brought on by the dovish rhetoric of the MPC in the face area of rising inflation dynamics.

Next year, with the start of the cycle Elevated ̇ ek st yellow p rates and maintaining robust economic data in the united kingdom against the planet, we expect a gradual strengthening of the zloty towards 4.50.